Episode 67 — Transcript (EN)

AI-translated from the German original. Voices cloned with Chatterbox TTS.

Niclas [00:00:14] Welcome to the A Faster You Podcast, where everything revolves around endurance sport and training. Sebastian Schluricke, Björn Kafka and Niclas Ranker share valuable tips and insights to help you take your performance to the next level. Alright, welcome to the second attempt of an A Faster You episode on the Tour de France. We already started a recording, but after five minutes it started having internet problems. And now we're here for round two. Good morning, Björn. Good morning again. So, Tour de France. Like I just said, it's coming up. Starts tomorrow. Today's Friday. Tomorrow at 17:05 we start with a team time trial. When you hear team time trial, what's your first thought? It's rough for everyone. Everyone has to suffer right away, you mean?

Björn [00:00:55] Everyone has to suffer right away, and if you didn't have a great day or you're a cold-starter, or you're a GC-type sitting at around 60 kilos on this pancake-flat thing that's only steep at the end, flat then steep, and you have to push through it, that can get ugly. Although this year, similar to the Dauphiné, it's set up so that you bring the best rider to the finish and he gets to hammer up the last 800 meters at 7 percent, hoping to post a fast time. So it's not the classic team time trial like it used to be, where all four had to cross the line for the time to count. Now the individual riders are timed. That definitely makes it exciting, especially on this course, especially in Barcelona, which was already massive at the opening.

Niclas [00:01:40] Yeah, I think it's going to be boiling. When they ride that last ramp up to the Olympic stadium, it's going to be complete madness.

Björn [00:01:46] It's going to be totally crazy. Luckily the temperatures aren't quite as insane now as they were two weeks ago.

Niclas [00:01:54] But next week it's going to be brutally hot again, right?

Björn [00:01:57] Yeah, so we'll be back around 37 degrees?

Niclas [00:02:00] I don't even know. What I've seen is that parts of France are forecast to hit 40 degrees again next week. Oh boy.

Björn [00:02:07] Let's see how well the heat adaptation worked. Yeah, it's going to be heavy.

Niclas [00:02:13] But hold on, in our first attempt at this episode we actually went into the first team time trial in a bit more detail, at least about the course. And I find that interesting, because like you said, in the past four riders had to cross the line. Now only one has to make it to the finish. Well, actually everyone still has to finish, but the first one counts for the time. And since the last 700 meters go up at 7.9 percent on average, this is going to be a situation where the teams drop their leader, the one who's supposed to ride for GC or for the stage win, at the bottom of that ramp, and then those last 700 meters they go up as hard as they can.

Björn [00:02:50] Yeah, but I'd say at 7 percent you can still benefit from drafting, quite a bit. I can imagine going in as a pair.

Niclas [00:02:57] Even if you say so, because if we look at it, I actually opened Pro Cycling Stats, and you see, you enter the first meters at 8.2 percent, then it kicks up to 10, then a section at 5, then 8, then 10, then 11, and up top the last 100 meters at 3.3. So it's really punchy.

Björn [00:03:15] But I think if you go in as a pair with two similarly strong riders, that's a killer motivator. If you've got your top domestique in front of you drilling it up, and you sit on his wheel and hammer along in the draft, I can definitely see that being worth it.

Niclas [00:03:31] I think the top three GC teams are, I'd say, Visma, UAE and Red Bull. And all three teams have a kind of theoretical double-headed lead. Visma has Jorgenson and Vingegaard. Sure, Vingegaard is the leader, but Jorgenson on a ramp like that, I mean, he's ridden the classics really well too. He could be up there. At UAE, obviously you've got Pogi and you've got Del Toro. Del Toro, over such a short distance, I think he's almost on Pogi's level.

Björn [00:03:56] Maybe. Yeah.

Niclas [00:03:57] Maybe even better, yeah. Then we've got Red Bull with Lipowitz and Remco. Honestly, I see Remco with the advantage there over Lipo. For one, time trialing, the guy is a bullet, and for a 700-meter ramp, that suits a Remco much more than a Lipo. Yeah. And then, theoretically we also have Decathlon with Paul Seixas, that will definitely suit him too.

Björn [00:04:15] Yeah, he just needs a squad that gets him there in good shape. Then we've also got Ineos, and then Uno-X too. Oh, Foss. He'll be motivated. Well, sure. So, Oscar Onley isn't there. That means he can ride for himself. Oscar Onley isn't there? Oh, I hadn't seen that. He's injured, right? He went down at the Dauphiné. Or am I talking nonsense? Should we look it up real quick?

Niclas [00:04:40] Wait, wait, wait. So I only have info from ProCycling. Nope, he's not there. At Ineos we have Bernal, Arensman, Foss, Ganna, Rodríguez, Kwiatkowski, Thaling and Vauquelin. Yeah. I have to say, sure, Vauquelin is a rider who can handle that ramp really well. But Arensman is also a brutally strong time trialist.

Björn [00:04:57] Yeah, and wait, who else do they have? Sorry.

Niclas [00:05:01] At Ineos? Bernal, Arensman, Tobias Foss, Filippo Ganna. Foss.

Björn [00:05:06] Yeah, of course. That's a killer time trial squad. With Foss and Ganna. Arensman. Arensman. A Ganna alone can carry a team like that.

Niclas [00:05:16] Yeah, because Ganna manages that on an 8 percent ramp at over 90 kilos.

Björn [00:05:22] Yeah, but look how he hammers up climbs sometimes. Fourth place at 700 watts.

Niclas [00:05:27] I'm curious. I have to say, I've looked through all the stages a bit. The last week is supposed to be one of the toughest we've had in recent years, but somehow the types of climbs don't grab me that hard. But I have to say, I don't think I've ever been this hyped for a Tour as this year, because I think France is going to be on fire, because the French are all so incredibly hot for Paul Seixas.

Björn [00:05:48] Yeah, but even the first three stages are ridiculously hard. It's not some easy rolling start. Stage two goes into Barcelona. That's going to be so good. First 80 kilometers just roll along, and maybe some group tries to get away. But everyone will try to be in that break. There will most likely be two hours of war.

Niclas [00:06:08] You also have to remember, at kilometer 85 there's an intermediate sprint. Meaning they don't want a group to go clear.

Björn [00:06:16] Right. Then the climb comes. Category two, that's no joke either. And then it goes up and down like a saw-tooth and it's going to be hammered. Then, I don't know, a lead group of 30 riders reaches another category three. Then it sorts itself out. We've seen it for years. I still remember the year when Pogi, oh, who else was there? Yeah, we've seen it again and again, actually the last two years, that even these opening stages get raced this hard. If you look at the data, the newton-meters, the sprint peaks, even for GC riders, the first three stages are killer, yeah. What gets interesting then is... Stages 3 and 4, where they get a first-category climb thrown at them straight away.

Niclas [00:06:59] Yeah, what I still find wild, where I say this is going to be super interesting, is stage 2 with the Côte du Castel de Montjuïc or however you pronounce it, that category 3, because the last 200 meters average 14.7 percent. So they kick over that ramp every time. And you have to see what kind of riders will be at the front. If you have someone like Remco in yellow that day, he doesn't want to give it up right away. So they'll go over that with a knife between their teeth. Then you have riders like Ben Healy who can do that really well, who might want it, who might get into the breakaway before. You could even have a Tom Pidcock, who can do that really well. A Mathieu Van der Poel can theoretically do it too.

Björn [00:07:36] Yeah, exactly.

Niclas [00:07:38] He could even win the stage, because there's a descent afterwards. I think it's going to catch fire, that second stage. And then, as you said, third stage goes straight over a first-category climb.

Björn [00:07:48] Yeah, so it's going to be... I think the first three or four days are going to be so intense. And then we'll see how much people have gritted their teeth. And then it'll become a slow-motion death march. Yeah, I can picture that.

Niclas [00:08:00] But tell me, who's your favorite? For what? Overall win. Yeah, well, whoever names someone other than Pogačar for the overall win, I don't know, right? If we just look at the season so far, Pogačar basically has to win this. You mustn't underestimate, it's the first year in a while where both top favorites, if we look at Pogačar and Vingegaard, both won all their prep stage races convincingly. Mhm. Honestly, it's the first year where both are truly injury-free, illness-free, and topfit at the start. Yeah. Visma has shown they have a very strong, very good team. The line-up Visma is bringing to the start is really nasty. I think it's going to be incredibly exciting, especially because Visma, at UAE it's a bit like, okay, they run a lot on Pogačar's gut feeling, and at Visma everything is planned very clearly. They have strict plans and they'll probably ride, in quotes, behind Pogačar and approach it very tactically. I think it'll be a very, very exciting Tour between those two. The cards are with Pogačar, I'd say.

Björn [00:08:57] Yeah, but what happens if Del Toro goes rogue and says, I'm going for it? He won't. He won't.

Niclas [00:09:03] I'm telling you, Del Toro will be loyal enough, he'll just ride flat out for Pogi.

Björn [00:09:08] Yeah, look. I'm always curious. I do believe that races that seem so clear beforehand usually end up serving something you didn't expect. Yeah, I hope so. Somehow my gut tells me it won't all go so clean.

Niclas [00:09:23] Your gut tells you Florian Lipowitz wins the Tour de France. No, it doesn't say that. Then Jonas Abrahamsen.

Björn [00:09:29] Tobias Halland Johannessen. Rides onto the podium. Wow, that would be wild. That would light your house on fire, right? For sure. He rode strong. Dauphiné. The last stages.

Niclas [00:09:42] But the first ones? He didn't ride well GC-wise at the Dauphiné, because he had a rough day on day one.

Björn [00:09:48] Ouch. That can't happen. Okay.

Niclas [00:09:51] But now actually, because if we talk about it, okay, maybe it doesn't go how people think. Because I'd say the two obvious scenarios are either Pogačar wins or Vingegaard wins. Those are the obvious ones. Yeah. Then we have to talk about Paul Seixas.

Björn [00:10:04] Yeah, definitely. I don't think, I mean, he's going to be safe, but whether he turns it around this year, I don't think so.

Niclas [00:10:12] People didn't think that about Pogi either.

Björn [00:10:14] Yeah, but different topic. I've now seen him fail power-wise twice, at races where he really struggled. Once was the Basque Country, where he... But he still won. He won, but only for a week. And on that stage, the last stage, when Uno-X blew the whole thing apart. Despite his tears, he was in the wind at 75 percent. Ahead were Ben Healy, Skjelmose, real drillers, and Uno-X made it long, tore it apart. And Paul Seixas and company were like, yeah, yeah, and Lipowitz, let them ride there, we'll let them go, or rather it got really fast then. And then they all panicked because those guys were suddenly really fast. And Paul Seixas tried to close the gap himself and they basically eliminated themselves. It was just a tactical mistake, what happened there. I think Lipo finished second, very narrowly on GC, really tight. It was only a few seconds. And Tobias finished third. And Seixas really struggled to chase back. You thought, he's a machine, he'll just close it down, Pogi-style, but he didn't. And at the Dauphiné we also saw, sure, he was great, he was strong, but he made it long, was here and there, somehow not 100 percent present.

Niclas [00:11:29] That's something I saw at the Dauphiné for example. It's not officially the Dauphiné anymore, but let's still call it that. Do you know why he crashed?

Björn [00:11:36] I didn't catch that. Yeah, actually, a lot of people went down. It was just fast and slippery. Yeah, and they overestimated it. Although Seixas is a brutal descender, that has to be said. But they simply overestimated it. Or underestimated, better said. So, like I said, he's not the type of rider where you say, he crashes, sits back on the bike, or something went wrong here, and he'll push through. I had the feeling that once something's not quite right, then it's not running anymore.

Niclas [00:12:05] Well, he's only 19 and this will be his first Grand Tour, right? Right. You can't forget, Pogačar had already ridden a Vuelta before his Tour win and had won stages there. Yeah. So he came in with a different amount of experience.

Björn [00:12:19] It's going to be really exciting. Look, Jan Ullrich also took second at the Tour first before he won. Okay, so Seixas takes second this year and wins the Tour next year. I don't think he'll be second. I don't even think he'll make the podium. But I do think he wins a stage or two.

Niclas [00:12:36] Okay, okay. But then you have to tell me, what would be the surprise, where you say, who would win the Tour as a surprise? Because you said you have this feeling that something will go differently.

Björn [00:12:45] I think that... No, I think, no. I mean, I can imagine that it won't play out that way as far as the podium positions. It'll get shuffled a bit. We all know Pogi, even if he goes down, he gets back up and rides like he's from another planet. He showed that again at Milan-San Remo, it's just insane, where everyone else would just be gone. He simply rides to the front and wins. So I say, only he could pull that off, because mentally the guy is bulletproof. But you have to somehow keep that up for three weeks, and I have a feeling things will get shuffled a bit. If everything goes well, definitely Pogi and Vingegaard. You'd think so. Whether it's exactly one and two set in stone, well, at Pogi a lot speaks for it, but one bad day, sore knee, upset stomach, who knows. That can always change.

Niclas [00:13:36] No one is safe from that, right?

Björn [00:13:39] Yeah, and third place is really... exciting. Lipowitz has put in an amazing performance so far. I think Lipowitz is probably as fit as he's ever been. Yeah, but there's a whole crowd pushing from behind. You've got Del Toro, Seixas, Halland Johannessen also finished a solid sixth.

Niclas [00:13:59] You also have, and this needs to be said, you have Ayuso. Yeah, exactly. Ayuso is also still there, still fit. He's improved. And you probably also have a Lenny Martinez. Whether he can hold it over three weeks I don't know, but he'll be motivated, he'll try. So that's on the table for sure. Fine, and then it gets much tighter for the top favorites. Remco, well, Remco is also still in play.

Björn [00:14:20] Yeah, but that's a strange one. Nobody really has him, no one believes he'll make the podium.

Niclas [00:14:27] No, somehow not. But because he also... Basically I like Remco because he's a fighter, and, I'd say, he shares and shows his emotions to the world. But on the other hand he's the kind of guy who... I don't know, Pokačar comes up on day seven, says something mean to him, and then he loses motivation, and then from day eight on he rides poorly. So, right? He wakes up in the morning, the pillow had a wrinkle he didn't recognize, didn't like it, then he rides badly. Yeah. I don't know, I'd rather trust a Thymen Arensman with a podium than a Remco. What about Carlos Rodríguez?

Björn [00:14:57] Carlos Rodríguez isn't riding. Oh, he's not racing? Really not?

Niclas [00:15:02] Why isn't he actually riding? Fine. I can't answer that off the top of my head. But there are definitely... I don't know, so... Oh, we still have, well, I mentioned that he's riding, but how do you see Tom Pidcock?

Björn [00:15:12] Yeah, right, Tom Pidcock. Have we seen him anywhere big lately, stage race-wise? Nope. Nope.

Niclas [00:15:19] But it's a Tom Pidcock. So I'd say, I say Tom Pidcock wins a stage, and I could imagine Tom Pidcock winning the second stage. Yeah. I could really see that. Second, maybe even third stage. So especially early on he'll be very good. You also have to say, last year's Vuelta he rode better than we would have expected. Mhm. So I trust Tom Pidcock a lot in general because of his character, he's intelligent, he can ride a bike incredibly well. I just don't know if he can pull it off over three weeks, because I think, especially with his mountain bike and cross background, he's basically too punchy a rider for three weeks. Yeah. And he'd have to go far from his natural style to manage it.

Björn [00:15:54] Yeah, I also think it's a mentally tough job to ride full gas for three weeks with the very, very, very best. And if something doesn't happen right, I mean, the Tour is always... I talked to the guys yesterday, with the staff or coaches on site right now. It's another level. Just the whole media coverage and everything is totally crazy. Everything is amplified. It's wild. It's different from a Giro, different from a Vuelta. And if you're up there riding at the front, you have to endure it for three weeks.

Niclas [00:16:23] Yeah, but actually I think media and stuff like that doesn't faze Pidcock. I think he's been in the spotlight enough in his life.

Björn [00:16:30] Yeah, but I'm saying, one stage doesn't go so well, then maybe he mentally crumbles a bit. Sure. So let's see. I think a Vingegaard and Pogi rest so nicely in themselves, and Lipowitz too, certainly. And from what I know of the guys with us, they're also pretty relaxed. So from that side...

Niclas [00:16:48] But this is what I find interesting and you have to answer me a question. You've been working, it's been a bit over half a year now, you're working for Uno-X, or with them. What would you say makes the difference between a rider you take to the Tour de France and a rider you don't take?

Björn [00:17:03] The demands of the Tour in general?

Niclas [00:17:05] Just purely the type of rider you are.

Björn [00:17:08] Right, exactly. How many people do you want to bring? How many GC riders? Helpers for GC do you bring. If we take a Søren as a sprinter, he's also a good time trialist, but you won't be able to use him in the high mountains as much. An Abra, that's a break card, ride yourself into the break. Then you have a Magnus Cort, who is also a good time trialist, but there too, you might not have the top-tier support in the high mountains. Those are cards where you say, okay, we go for stage wins. And then you have completely different types, like a Torstein Traeen. Gifted climber. We saw him at the Dauphiné. That was the guy who was still there at the front.

Niclas [00:17:50] We saw that from him at the Vuelta already, essentially.

Björn [00:17:53] Exactly. He also had the red jersey. He's a good guy. Anton Charmig. Can do everything. He climbs reasonably well, he can navigate positions incredibly well, he can bring guys where they need to be, he can win stages himself. He just finished third in the Danish national championships even though he pulled the sprint and messed around all day, so, killer engine, it's just great, still rides onto the podium.

Niclas [00:18:20] So he was basically riding for Magnus all day?

Björn [00:18:23] Right, he pulled the whole team to Magnus, but he also caused real chaos and pulled the sprint. I mean, Mads Pedersen and company were also there and those guys really smash it. It was good, really impressive. Then you have an Anders Skaarseth, who also climbs reasonably well on the flat, another machine. And then you have Tobias's brother. The other Halland, and he too, when he's in shape, he can climb really, really well. So from that side, the decision was, who helps well enough on the climbs. And who is also skilled enough technically to get down the descents, because I mean, first-category climbs, we can handle those, but we also see it, and this has changed, look at how Pogi descends, or how the others descend in general, we've seen Chris Froome in the past, how he descended sometimes. You need riders who are also incredibly good downhill. It's no use if you have a watt machine who rides up the climb but brakes ten meters too early in every corner and then loses 30 seconds, and then you've lost the lead group.

Niclas [00:19:26] Or there's a well-known name who ends up on his face at every stage race. Yeah, there is.

Björn [00:19:32] There's always someone. You really have to pick the whole package. Good climbers who also descend well. And for us this time, basically we had people at altitude camp who we had already pre-selected. The Tour selection, for us but also for many other teams, take UAE for example, when I was in Sierra Nevada and talked with Javier for a long time, the roster is basically set already in November. Yeah. Basically set, you just thin it out from there. Who's currently, gets sick again and so on. Then you take people to the altitude camp for that exact reason, so they're in shape for the Tour. And every team has its guys who can pull something off. We play on multiple fronts. At Visma it looks different. There it all revolves around Vingegaard. There you have climbers and wind-drillers. And they can do just about everything. I mean, a Campenaerts can also climb really well. There the focus is very clear, and with Tadej it's exactly the same. There you have people who are only there to move Tadej forward and win the whole thing. And then you have teams like ours who say, okay, we're focused on a good GC result, but we also want to have a say on stages. Meaning breakaway, meaning sprint, meaning simply hard stages where someone with a fast finish can pull something off, someone like Magnus Cort, yeah. Or also an Anton Charmig, who can do things like that, where the sprinters have already been dropped. Yeah, and every team has its tactic. But sure, the selection is always hard and there are really heated debates. I'd say usually you have six riders who are pretty clearly set, because they're just performing well. And then you have, I'd say, four people who are more up in the air, yes and how. And then there are several meetings and then it's decided who comes along and who doesn't.

Niclas [00:21:23] But would you say, independently of your team's decision on who to take, if you look at those eight riders, or maybe just those six who are relatively locked in, would you say they differ, when you look at the whole rider, they also differ in, I don't know, mindset, in their approach to the sport, in their attitude toward the sport, they differ fundamentally from the others? Or is it really just, an Abrahamsen is a bit better physiologically than some other engine on your roster?

Björn [00:21:47] What they all are is extremely focused. Very different types. There are people where you can just feel a high tension. But I'd say what they all, all, all have, they all pay attention to detail, across the board. Some more stressed, some very laid-back, but they're all very, very detail-fixated and they notice when something isn't quite right, and then they tell you. An Abra for example is a bit louder maybe, or louder isn't the word, just a bit more animated. And then you have someone like Anton Charmig, who... Mentioned just now, quiet, but they're all insanely detail-obsessed.

Niclas [00:22:25] By detail-obsessed you mean, for example, how they do their training, when it comes to nutrition. Okay, I didn't sleep quite great today. Little things where they really try to get the maximum out of every day.

Björn [00:22:36] Exactly, training and maybe we can go over this again, and also this body awareness. I think we should look here again. Maybe we can do something. I'm feeling like I need this. Things like that, they are very, very... I wouldn't say detail-loving, but they're very aware of what's missing. You can also ask them, how do you rate your current shape? And they can say, I'm actually feeling really good. Without a filter of, yeah, I'll go along with it because I have to say it, they're very, very honest about it. And what they all also have is the nice buzzword durability. They just don't break. That's the basic trait. This rider just needs to be able to push through three weeks. Even when they have a few bad days in between, or times where they're a bit off. But they need to be able to push through, and what the guys with us can do, or what you generally see, they lose very little coming toward the back end. They're always good late on because they have insanely many life-kilometers and they also train an unbelievable amount. And they're incredibly tight as a group. Most of them have known each other since they were kids.

Niclas [00:23:43] That's what I find great about Uno-X. Because they all come from the same school. It's like if you, I don't know, took the youth roster from NRW, which is a lot of riders because NRW is big and has a lot of cycling, and put them straight into a WorldTour team. They grew up together and everything.

Björn [00:23:59] Often were in those boarding-school structures and they all rode together. They know each other, and the Danes and the Norwegians know each other really well too, because they've all raced together. It all lies fairly close together geographically. So they all know each other incredibly well. They all speak the same language. I mean, Danes and Norwegians understand each other without any problems. Depends on where the accent in Norway comes from, that has to be added. Even there I have my struggles, yeah, there are some Norwegians where I have no problem at all and others where I get nothing.

Niclas [00:24:33] That's how it is depending on which Swiss person you talk to, you either understand him or you think, what language is this?

Björn [00:24:40] Yeah, exactly. And I think that's what makes the difference, that they all know each other incredibly well and know how the other ticks. And not the whole, okay, how many million euros do we have lying around? Then we buy this one and this one and this one and slot them into a team. And that's, I think, the great art. You see it in football too. You have world-class players, throw them together in a team, national team, whichever. And even though the individual quality is so high, as a team they don't gel. Doesn't matter which national team. And that effect you don't have with a team like Uno-X, because they all know each other so incredibly well and have known for years exactly how the other ticks. Tactically it's like playing a blind pass and it lands on the other guy's foot. Yeah, it is. Yeah, sure. Yeah, and the longer a team is together, the better it is. It's also not always the case, you see it in other teams too, that they always take the super strong rider to these stage races, where you think, hey, why isn't he being taken? He's, you can rely on him. You know what you get from him. You know what you get out of him. You know what he also brings to the team outside of the stages. If you have a guy like that who rides solidly but brings absolute calm into the bus, into the team bus, who is a super road captain, who makes the calls and so on, that's worth more than having a superstar who has crazy watts per kilo. But who is a bit unpredictable and can go wild at some point, someone you can't gauge. I mean, we saw that at UAE with Ayuso and all those things. Yeah, that wasn't controllable anymore. Yeah, exactly. Stuff like that. That can't happen. Or Froome as a helper, when he finished second behind Wiggins, even there, how deeply ingrained that is, that they know how the other ticks. Those are the things. That's why you don't always bring the superheroes.

Niclas [00:26:32] How do you see the, let's call it the Tour preparation. If you say, okay, the calendar is set, the roster is basically, in quotes, set in November, let's say, of the eight riders who actually ride the Tour, you probably have a selection of ten, eleven, twelve riders where you say, okay, you're the backup in case one of the eight gets sick or one doesn't perform this year like he should because something happens, whatever. They're all human beings. Where do you see the biggest challenge in the preparation of a Tour de France and in preparing the riders for the Tour de France?

Björn [00:27:03] Don't get sick, don't get injured. Yeah, simple as that. That's actually too easy. Yeah, don't lose training time. That's the most important thing. Don't lose training time, and also make sure that you peak mentally and physically, that training is structured so that you say, okay, here's your shape, and that you also have athletes who mentally aren't burned out or overloaded with races. That's why it's so important, if you look at the structures of successful WorldTour teams, it's mainly about, you have a WorldTour calendar that has to be raced. And then you need many riders who simply say, okay, we ride these races so we can keep our top riders fresh for the really important stuff. So really, it's not that Pogi does everything, or Vingegaard, or your best riders. The rest has to, I won't say sacrifice themselves, but they have to race that WorldTour calendar and collect the points, so that we, or the team, has enough WorldTour points at the end of the year to keep the status. That's why you don't just invest in one Tour team. That can be the big goal, definitely. But the background is always, you also have to invest in riders who aren't the big killers, but they're the ones who keep the team alive. Simple as that. They're the ones putting in the meters. Right. And who often collect the most points at the end of the day maybe. The ones who, I won't call it grunt work, but who keep the whole thing running. That's the foundation.

Niclas [00:28:33] How do you handle this now, for example, I imagine it's incredibly difficult. You have riders, and I think every athlete knows this about themselves, you need a certain amount of races so that you have at least some feeling for how it feels right now, what my strengths are, my weaknesses. Also to have some self-confidence in your body. Okay, I can ride three hours off the front now, like with a Jonas for example. How do you do that? Do you sit down with the rider individually? And also ask them a bit what they would like to race? What do you think you need to, as you said, arrive at the start with the right head, so having self-confidence. Also to have mental freshness, because if you race way too many races, everyone knows, too many races just wreck you mentally. Too few races might also be the wrong path. I'm always surprised at how few races Pogačar performs on. He barely has to race 365 days, then shows up at one race and wins. Doesn't bother him. He knows he's the best.

Björn [00:29:29] Yeah, he's got a killer mindset. He's also been through a real bone-mill. I think he raced Adria Mobil. He raced in Croatia, Slovenia, real bone-crushing races where it's really tough. Technically too, it's really unpleasant. So he already has that, yeah, that's just how it is, he can really ride a bike, period. He doesn't come from a Devo team where everything is sweet, no, he went through the really hard school. Vingegaard the same, by the way. Fish-filleting. Yeah, sure. In between. So they didn't have that sheltered upbringing, they were just, maybe that's also why they are mentally so capable, yeah.

Niclas [00:30:05] Basically, Paul Seixas too, Seixas comes from cyclocross. He only raced cyclocross. He also didn't have this, hey, I'm a Devo rider, I have to grind 30,000 kilometers a year.

Björn [00:30:18] So you sit down with the sports directors, or heads of sport usually, you sit together. You can plan the WorldTour calendar relatively well, and you sit together, ideally already thinking now, which races, where do I see my riders. And then the riders get sorted onto the races where they fit best. And on top of that, where do we still have blocks so I can keep developing the riders during the season. That's always a thing too. I've seen it at other teams I worked with before, with other athletes at other WorldTour teams. There it was sometimes a bit unpredictable. Riders were, I don't know, two days into altitude camp, get a call, hey, you're going to that race now. Like, what, now? I wasn't even a reserve. No, you're supposed to. So, the plan for the athletes is set in November, what they'll race. And then you sit down as a coach and know, okay, here and here I should be in shape, and here and here I should be in shape. And I say, okay, I'm aiming for a five-minute or whatever VO2max output, and here maybe the... Glycolytic output, VLamax, whatever, can still be a bit higher. I reduce that when it's Tour time. Then you already have a good building block. And you take the races along as a form check and see. I'm also the type who says, I actually don't need races. Simon Dalby for example, who rode a killer Tour de Suisse, finishing 17th. Everyone was at the start. And there he was riding at the front. He'd only done two races before that.

Niclas [00:31:47] Wild, because this year he was just sick and injured.

Björn [00:31:51] Let me summarize. He had... a stroke at the end of October. Wow. Yeah, yeah, exactly. He had a hole in his heart. It's known what happened. He had a hole in his heart, a blood clot, a thrombus formed. And then he collapsed. Then we figured out, okay, this is what it is. Then of course he had to take medication. Then he had heart surgery. Then, after the operation, it took quite a while again, because things didn't run super smoothly. Sure, it's a procedure. Then he really started training. So I, or rather, we went to Mallorca mid-January and started with three-hour endurance rides, slowly. That was the training, first training block, before that we did a bit. Three hours endurance. And then we did two, three, always about two, two days, three hours, one day rest, two hours, that was the training. Then he did two races. I think one somewhere in Belgium and I think Frankfurt he also did. Then he had another huge block and then he came to the Tour de Suisse and just destroyed it. Killer stuff. Honestly, the best results with my athletes I had during Covid. Because I could just, very simply, test, see where we stand. Build training, do it. Test, continue. I know, Timo Loderer, we'll talk about him again, that was really one of the best and most successful years, because we could plan everything through. And that's, I mean, at Conti teams the plan is even more difficult, because the races, it's just so unclear where you get in and when the races are and when it's officially confirmed. It's much, much harder to build up Conti riders or design annual plans, because the races are so uncertain. You don't know if you get in and so on.

Niclas [00:33:38] Right, a lot of people don't know that. In a Conti team, sometimes you know, if it's going well, three weeks before a race, ah, we're racing that. Right. So I know, BikeGate has at least tried this year, we made an annual calendar, it's viewable, but there are so many question marks in it. Yeah. So you can roughly estimate, yeah okay, we'll probably race that. But because you rely on invitations and as a Conti team you're always the last one, yeah, from the organizer, like, yeah, we fill up with you guys, it's completely bad to plan.

Björn [00:34:05] I'd say, the good thing at BikeAid is that with Matthias Schnapka they have someone sitting there who knows everyone, who's been in the business for years, who raced himself, and he's well-known and has good contacts. There it's already a bit safer. But if you're starting a new Conti team, hey, it's so crazy. Of course the Conti teams that get chosen are the ones where you know, okay, they're reliable. B, they have good riders. I also want a bit of spectacle in the race and not have people who drop out right away. So from that side, Conti race planning is significantly more complicated than WorldTour planning. WorldTour planning is ideally done in November.

Niclas [00:34:46] And that's something too, where through BikeGate I'm now also involved with some Devo riders. And it's something I have to fight with these Devo riders about. Sure, they're 17, 18, 19-year-old boys. Ideally they all dream a bit about the WorldTour. They want to race two races every weekend. And on top of that they want to train 25 hours. Where I'm like, guys, you have to decide. Make a sensible race plan, I don't know, ride your Bundesliga races, ride some stage races and then ride some races that really suit you profile-wise, and skip the rest, because at some point you also have to train and you can't only race and only grind hours. You have to have some structure, some planning in there. And I find it always so hard, that's why I sometimes think it's not wrong to look at mountain bikers, from a purely physical performance point of view mountain bikers are much easier to train. Because, I don't know, a young mountain biker races his Bundesliga and then some Junior World Series races. That's it. That's maybe 20 events per year, done. And they're spread over the whole season. That's manageable. But racing endlessly, or cross-country riders who also try to collect UCI points. So, yeah, I race here, I race there, then I have to go here. Yeah, you sit in the car more and race more than you train. So, where are we supposed to build form?

Björn [00:35:58] I fly to Serbia to race another C1 race. Yeah, we're completely off the deep end. Yeah. But that's how it is, I mean, I just read a comment, I don't remember which German rider it was. Was it Engelhardt? No, I don't remember. In Germany in general we have the fundamental problem that when it comes to road races, we have really few.

Niclas [00:36:19] The real road races, not circuit races.

Björn [00:36:22] Yeah, yeah, exactly. I mean, in Cologne, okay, we still have a circuit race, but even that is dying out. And it's just becoming harder and harder, more and more unattractive for organizers to put on races. I just, when we talked with Daniel about his marathon that he's putting on, you think, hey, start fees and that's it. Forget it. If you only take start fees, which are already high. Or where people say, why isn't the whole thing even fully closed off? That covers nothing. You go into the red. Then you have to find sponsors who support the thing. And then you earn money. Because you have to somehow motivate the volunteer fire brigade XY, and they get money, and they get money. Then you have marshals here and marshals there. And then it gets expensive. And I know, back in the day, we raced races. Ten people stood along the course, volunteers from the club, and they somehow pulled it off. That's not possible anymore. It's just not on. Yeah, that's really rough. Yeah. So from that side, I'd say the young talent we're getting in Germany now, I've said it before, they are so highly motivated, because they have to fight through the whole thing, low race density, sometimes low support, just to get there at all. I mean, if you grow up in Husum and want to race there, there just aren't great clubs. That's how it is. Either you really want it or you'd be nothing. It's different in Bavaria, though Bavaria isn't top either, but it's now like in Saarland, with BikeAid or Lotto Kernhaus and so on, there you at least have addresses you can go to.

Niclas [00:37:56] I think Saarland, Rhineland-Palatinate, NRW are well set up. East Germany too, big time. I'm also extremely surprised at what Saarland is putting up in mountain biking, for example. There's a really good youth project too. Yeah, but definitely, I think for most young riders it's about thinking a bit about a race calendar and finding a middle ground between, okay, sure, I have to race to gain experience, because you have to learn that too. But you also need clear training blocks. You also have to take two, three weeks time to train, so you can make progress again. It doesn't work, in quotes, only over the winter.

Björn [00:38:30] Yeah, so it's really... Like I said, Covid was terrible, but for race build-up, awesome. Train, check where we are, test, train, and so on. I hold on to that, I always do it that way. Train, check where we are, either from races or from tests. Yeah, or I've got a good race number, then I have to slot in something else afterwards. In what direction am I moving, and why am I moving? And then you start. The better they get, the smaller the performance gains become. Let's see, what's missing. Yeah, and then you have to go through the data. And then you work on possible weaknesses. And that's how it is. It's always an iteration loop.

Niclas [00:39:09] Actually not hard.

Björn [00:39:11] Yeah, but many just train blindly. I think my gut tells me we need this. Which, sure, good coaches definitely have that feeling. I don't think I'm that good. I do it more like, we need data again.

Niclas [00:39:24] I think, well, I think the data-driven path is the better one. Feeling can often just fool you.

Björn [00:39:30] I think both are important there. Yeah. Now we've completely drifted off.

Niclas [00:39:35] That's what I was about to say. We've completely drifted off. Let's briefly close the loop on the Tour, because we did talk about the start of the Tour, but we haven't really talked about the middle section, and also for example not about the sprints. You also have a sprinter with you. Søren Wærenskjold? Yeah. Okay. I hope I pronounced the name halfway right. Yeah. But you have to say, the first flat stage is stage 5. Before that nothing really happens for the sprinters. Nope, that one is pancake-flat. What does pancake-flat mean?

Björn [00:40:03] There it goes up and down a bit too.

Niclas [00:40:05] Yeah, one kilometer at 8.8 percent, once briefly, category three.

Björn [00:40:10] So it's... There has to be a sprint. Yeah, I think so. The sprinters will try to stay out of everything on the first four stages, whatever they can, and save themselves as much as possible.

Niclas [00:40:21] Do you think maybe stage 4? Although actually, looking at it, more of a breakaway. I'd say stage 4 actually has to be a group that goes clear, right?

Björn [00:40:29] Theoretically yes. The question is... if on stages 1, 2 and 3 people have already gone at each other's throats and there isn't a huge difference yet, and if you sense as a GC leader, hey, that guy is already struggling a bit, why don't we drop the hammer on stage 4. Around kilometer 93 after the sprint classification, that category two climb, 10 kilometers long, we hammer up it full gas and stretch the whole thing out again. That could happen too. I find that at the Tour it's not as predictable anymore as it was 10, 15 years ago. Back then you'd say, okay, classic breakaway. Especially now in the first week where everyone's basically got one leg working half. That's how it is. I can imagine every stage getting fought over. And with Pogi you never know. If he's in the mood, feeling good, I'm going to race everything from the front, he just does it. And then it turns into a breakaway stage. Suddenly it becomes GC decisive. He clips onto a Politt and boom, descent.

Niclas [00:41:35] Yeah, that could really happen. Okay, so stage 5 goes to the first sprint. And then you have to say, also crazy, stage 6 goes straight over the Tourmalet.

Björn [00:41:44] I mean, little rest. Almost certainly stage 5 will be a sprinter's stage, because everyone will be like, we're scared. We really have to just stay calm here and, I don't know. But also, what happens if stage 5 is totally windy? Really wild windy. And suddenly, until someone comes up with the idea, you know what? Let's see who we can catch on the wrong foot. Let's open up some echelons.

Niclas [00:42:09] You mustn't forget, on that stage... Ah, wait, I'm in the wrong... Ah, no, yeah, here. See. You're in southern France, right? Yeah. So it's not unrealistic that something can happen. Something like, okay, we're going to... I don't know, I don't know enough about the geography, from where the wind could come there. That's, I think, not, the area of Tarbes and Pau isn't the area where the mistral blows. That's more to the east and then more to the northeast. But basically it can get windy and down there the planet can really burn next week. Yeah.

Björn [00:42:38] Yeah, so, back in the day it was easier, nowadays you don't know anything anymore. But we can say for sure, stage 6 will kick off. So most likely, classic pattern, category one climb, l'Aspin, they hammer up it full gas, then everything falls apart. Then the favorites are at the Tourmalet, they'll shred each other there. One of the favorites tries to get away on the descent, grabs a few seconds, and then goes up the last climb. There they might all be together again.

Niclas [00:43:07] But that's actually what I find interesting about this stage. The way you say it, it could happen. But I could also imagine UAE saying, yeah okay, the last climb is only category two. It's 18.7 kilometers long, but only averages 3.7 percent. So what if they say, yeah okay, we control this to the top completely. Or another scenario, breakaway.

Björn [00:43:26] Or a breakaway. Breakaway with strong riders, I don't know, a Campenaerts type. Comes over the Tourmalet first, hammers down. Or Healy. Yeah, or Healy. But who do they have GC-wise? I mean, that they... Right, Carapaz. But that you have satellite riders who are also really good in the wind, and you let them ride at the front, and you come to the base as a GC rider, tuck in behind those guys, we've seen it plenty of times, I mean, Wout has done that a few times too, tuck in behind and hammer the thing up.

Niclas [00:43:56] That could happen too. Whoa, then imagine, Quinn Simmons goes into the break that day, Ayuso attacks over the Tourmalet.

Björn [00:44:02] Yeah. Anything can happen. So, many scenarios. Then we come to... Then it goes flat again. Then it goes flat again. Bordeaux is always a sprinter's stage. Then it goes flat again.

Niclas [00:44:14] Again... Yeah.

Björn [00:44:15] Flat. Flat, then... Breakaway. Breakaway. Stage 9, 100 percent. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Niclas [00:44:22] Yeah, breakaway. Come on, you have to say for the team, Abrahamsen.

Björn [00:44:26] Abrahamsen, Charmig.

Niclas [00:44:28] That's... Then we have a rest day after nine stages. So, Quinn Simmons has, let's say, a difficult political leaning. Does he? Not at all. Quinn Simmons was in his early years a hardcore Trumpy Boy and posted some pretty right-wing comments and stuff. He's kept his head down the last few years though. Chloe Dygert was also a bit difficult.

Björn [00:44:48] Chloe Dygert is the same direction. She likes to clean, I saw. And she's very religious. Yeah. I think I want a Bible verse on my chainstay too.

Niclas [00:44:58] You want a Bible verse on your chainstay? No, I don't want it. I'm an atheist. Or I'm. I think I'll print, I keep getting ads for stickers and stuff. I think I'll have a great Bible verse printed and send it to you so you can stick it on. Yeah, I don't know what I... Should I read fewer Richard Dawkins books? Stage 10. 3,800 meters of elevation. Doesn't look that crazy at first, but there are two first-category climbs in there.

Björn [00:45:21] It's super hard. Either it'll become a management stage and a breakaway, but then you have, like, a Ben Healy, Torstein Traeen, those are breakaway guys who can really climb well.

Niclas [00:45:31] I really hope Ben Healy has form and is really motivated. He always has motivation. Yeah, but I think he rides... Sure, his oddly tilted head looks a bit pathological. Kind of like... Slight paralysis. Yeah. You're riding yourself so hard through life that you sit paralyzed on the bike. But he attacks so nicely. He just goes. It's fun to watch him too. I'd love to see something there.

Björn [00:45:53] Yeah, then we have two stages that are pancake-flat. Yeah, 11 and 12. Yeah, so then we have, that's the stage to Belfort. That's where I'm going. I'll be down there for two days. Basically when they're near Freiburg, I'll drive over. Mhm. Exciting, so long. So I could also imagine that a breakaway will try to hold on over the climb somehow.

Niclas [00:46:15] Because basically, it's pancake-flat until kilometer 138. Then there's a little one, the Col de la Croix, 5.1, 4.8 percent. Yeah, nothing wild. But then the Ballon d'Alsace with 9 kilometers at 7 percent. That's a proper climb. Yeah. But then there are 25 kilometers of descent and flat to the finish. So not really a GC stage. Are you going over the back? It's not far from you, right? It's all near Colmar. I've been thinking about it. I was just near Markstein at Saint-Rue-Plan-de-Mer by the lake. I was there a few days. There's a nice campsite. I just rode the Ballon d'Alsace, Grand Ballon, Markstein, I did all of it. None of them are super hard climbs, right?

Björn [00:46:52] No, but it adds up. I mean, even if we drive from Mulhouse to Markstein. That's 3,800 elevation meters. That's really a kid's profile. So I think, on the first four days we'll have a really big shake-up or a big setting of the GC. And then we have a bit of calm. And then, I think, it goes into the last week and then everyone is really, really wrecked. But do you think...

Niclas [00:47:17] Stage 13, stage 14 and then of course stage 15 with almost 4000 meters of elevation.

Björn [00:47:24] Yeah.

Niclas [00:47:26] Do you think the big GC battle happens there, does it really kick off?

Björn [00:47:29] By then at the latest, things will settle. Sure, maybe our two superstars will already be set at the front. Then we'll see if one or two swaps. But theoretically, by then, I think, the big fight for third place is on. Who holds up the best? I mean, Lipowitz proved last year that he doesn't get tired. So it could be exciting, but there are lots of others. We've got Tobias, who I definitely trust to pull that off too. And yeah, it'll kick off. But like I said, I also believe in some surprise. That somehow, one of the big favorites will go down.

Niclas [00:48:02] And after day 15, a rest day, and then day 16 a time trial with a climb of 9.6 kilometers at 4.2 percent. That's, so it's not flat enough for me to say, okay, Ganna wins. I actually say, that's a Remco time trial.

Björn [00:48:14] Don't you think? Well, it's a Remco time trial, first you have to see how Remco is still doing in the race. Fine, but you also have to get a Remco to stage 16 first. So if he's dropped out of GC, let's say he's already, at stage 10 he's out and doesn't see anything anymore, and he still has motivation, then he saves himself completely and wants to win the time trial. That's option 1. The descent afterwards isn't easy, from what I understand.

Niclas [00:48:44] Yeah, you can see on Pro Cycling Stats on the map, there are some corners in there, some full 180-degree corners, especially at the bottom, some 90-degree ones.

Björn [00:48:53] Exactly, I think in the city it's more open, but when we come off the climb, category two, going down, back there, yeah, yeah, yeah, you have to know that.

Niclas [00:49:02] There's also an S-curve in there, you have to nail it, otherwise you leave a lot of time on the table.

Björn [00:49:06] Yeah, I'm curious. Exciting time trial. I would also have liked a pancake-flat time trial. Because that would have been a bit... Something for Ganna. Yeah, yeah, exactly. Because that would have shaken up the classic GC riders a bit. Then Vingegaard wouldn't have had it so easy. Although, we have to say, at 4.3 percent... 4.2 percent over 9.6 kilometers. That's... Yeah, the overtaking dynamic is decisive there, right?

Niclas [00:49:33] Yeah, the steepest sections in the climb are 5.2, but there's also 2.3 percent in between. So it's really, that's not, in quotes, a proper mountain climb, but it's still 800 elevation meters. Yeah, yeah.

Björn [00:49:46] So, let's see, stage 17, 100 percent breakaway. All the GC riders have flattened themselves.

Niclas [00:49:54] Yeah, or bunch sprint. I think... Because with the intermediate sprint, look, you have an intermediate sprint at 147 of 171 kilometers. That could... Because look, the climbs are far enough away.

Björn [00:50:05] Yeah, but I think somehow I have the feeling that by then they're already so wrecked.

Niclas [00:50:10] I could see, yeah, but I'd say, that Alpecin will make it a sprint stage.

Björn [00:50:15] That could well be, definitely, that could work, because they don't have that big of an assignment then anyway. That's a stage where they say, okay, we need to pull something off. Theoretically they've had two days of rest before. Right, and then we have the stage after, where they get nothing again, because it kicks off again. On that stage. Let's see. I think that will also be a stage where anyone who isn't yet settled on GC or got hit in the time trial will really go for it and try to make time back.

Niclas [00:50:45] Before things really, really kick off. I mean stage 19 is already hard. We basically go up Alpe d'Huez once. That won't be easy. There we have a first category, relatively, or we start with a category two, then a category one, then flat, sprint classification, category two up the Ornon, all not wild, and then Alpe d'Huez. Sure, it'll burn, it'll go off. But actually I'm curious how stages 18 and 19 will go with the backdrop that on stage 20 it's one of the hardest Tour stages ever. 5,400 elevation meters in one Tour stage. On just 170. That's completely bananas. Yeah, it's almost for the refined palate. Look, you ride the Col de la Croix de Fer. 24.1 kilometers, 5.2 percent on average. Then you descend to an intermediate sprint. Then comes the Télégraphe. The classic Télégraphe-Galibier. Yeah. So you ride, cumulatively, plus or minus 29, 30 kilometers uphill at around 7 percent. Sure, you have a short descent in between, but it's basically 30 kilometers of climbing.

Björn [00:51:46] Yeah.

Niclas [00:51:47] Massive long descent. And then you ride the Col de Sarenne. But it's not really a summit finish, because after that you still have 850 meters at 6 percent uphill, and then the finale, where you basically go up Alpe d'Huez from the back.

Björn [00:52:01] Yeah, but at the top of, well, before Alpe d'Huez, on that climb, at the Sarenne, I think, I assume that only one guy arrives there and then he pushes the last 11, 12 kilometers alone.

Niclas [00:52:14] Meaning you say, so at Sarenne Pogi won the Tour.

Björn [00:52:18] At Sarenne someone won the Tour. Okay, okay. Yeah, that's how I see it. So, and then we have the great stage again. 21.

Niclas [00:52:27] Actually the last days of the Tour, you can sit in front of the TV all day. Yeah.

Björn [00:52:32] Yeah, well I mean, how great was last year's stage already? And that they put Montmartre back in, is just killer. The atmosphere there. Three times Montmartre at the end, that will be so wild.

Niclas [00:52:44] But I also find it a bit sad for the sprinters, because this year's Tour, sure, you also have to... Better than the Meilenstein, right?

Björn [00:52:51] It has nothing left for the sprinters. You don't even need to send anyone.

Niclas [00:52:56] Yeah, but you also somehow, because the green jersey is particularly easy to get.

Björn [00:53:01] But the points were changed. I don't know about that. Yeah, there are fewer points or different points, so that Pogi doesn't immediately grab the green jersey again. Yeah, okay.

Niclas [00:53:12] It would also be wild at this Tour if Pogi wins all the jerseys.

Björn [00:53:16] But I mean, a Philipsen or a Van der Poel, I trust with Paris.

Niclas [00:53:21] Oh, you think Van der Poel could go for...

Björn [00:53:24] Van der Poel isn't going for green. No, no, but I could imagine him winning a stage like Paris. Okay, yeah, sure. I mean... Especially because Wout isn't there. Right, Montmartre suits him. So he can pull that off no problem. Even Abrahamsen wasn't bad on that stage last year. He rode there too. Even a Pogi wasn't bad.

Niclas [00:53:44] That's always the thing, he's just... The guy is so unfairly good. Especially now with the Eminem haircut. He'll win it. I believe in the surprise. Okay, one more question for you. And we already touched on him. What do you think is Mathieu Van der Poel's plan? Because... He just did something at the Tour de Suisse we've never seen from him. Or maybe seen in flashes before. But why is he suddenly time trialing fast? And why especially, we know, Mathieu Van der Poel is someone who can do everything. Except for high mountains now, he can do everything. He just has to have the motivation for it. So. Why does a Mathieu Van der Poel suddenly want to time trial? Where does that come from? What do you think? I can't tell you. I say, there's a plan behind it. Mathieu Van der Poel doesn't just start out of nowhere and say, okay, I'm going to work on my time trialing now.

Björn [00:54:32] Yeah, well. So, I'd even give him the time trial, the climb isn't that killer if he sits aerodynamically well. He has to sit well. He has to sit well, though the stage, the watts per kilo, though if he saves himself completely. I do think Paris could be really exciting for him. And that there are a few stages where he says, okay, I want to swing for the fences. Also the stage... Stage 2. Stage 2, definitely, yellow jersey, why not?

Niclas [00:54:58] Yeah, absolutely. Do you think Alpecin will try to ride hard and fast in the team time trial together, so Mathieu can grab yellow on stage 2?

Björn [00:55:07] That'll be tough, but I could see it, why not? I don't know. I mean, if he's already that good in the time trial, maybe they all finally optimized aerodynamically. Although, they always sat well. But that they say, okay, why not? They have a new bike, as far as I know, right? Canyon released a new TT bike. You could quickly WhatsApp Walsleben. Do you guys want to win this? What are you doing? Although he was at the Giro.

Niclas [00:55:31] I don't know if he's over the Tour. And then of course we have to do the obligatory, so this ages really badly in three weeks. Everyone names the podium. Everyone names the KOM jersey, the sprinter jersey and best young rider.

Björn [00:55:44] Best young rider is simply Seixas. Does Del Toro still count? Because I would have had Del Toro up there. Yeah, I think Del Toro burns himself out. I think he'll at some point... I think Seixas gets to ride how he wants. Del Toro probably has to work.

Niclas [00:55:59] Then I'll say, just to say something different, I say, Del Toro takes white.

Björn [00:56:04] Yeah, okay. Sprint?

Niclas [00:56:07] I think Philipsen. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I don't even know. I could imagine Philipsen, because of the riders at the start, he handles the climbs best.

Björn [00:56:14] No, I say Mads Pedersen. Mads Pedersen. Uh.

Niclas [00:56:18] But do you think Mads Pedersen gets over the climbs well enough that he's still fresh enough to grab points on the stages that count?

Björn [00:56:25] Yeah, I think so.

Niclas [00:56:27] Mads Pedersen.

Björn [00:56:29] Okay.

Niclas [00:56:30] Then a really tough one, KOM jersey.

Björn [00:56:33] Yeah, most likely, he'd probably grab yellow too.

Niclas [00:56:37] Yeah, that's, that's boring now. We have to pick a climber. So we can't say Vingegaard or Carapaz. From the same team I would have said Healy. Yeah. I'd like to see Healy in the KOM jersey. That would be cool.

Björn [00:56:48] I'd like to see Torstein Traeen in the KOM jersey.

Niclas [00:56:52] I'm just going to WhatsApp him. I'll call him right away. Björn Kafka changes Uno-X plans. We decided today on the podcast, everyone rides for Torstein Traeen for the KOM jersey. Yeah.

Björn [00:57:03] Okay, so I say Carapaz.

Niclas [00:57:05] Okay, okay. Then the all-deciding question. Who takes the podium? Ah, the podium, yeah. You can now say 3, 2, 1, or you say who wins, second and third. I've got my podium in my head. It's relatively uninteresting.

Björn [00:57:19] So, I think... I'm being totally patriotic. Me too. Pogi wins, Vingegaard second. And third would be Tobias Johannessen.

Niclas [00:57:29] Ah, okay, that's your kind of patriotic. Yeah, alright. I'd say, you're team-patriotic. Okay, I say, well, the dream would basically be Pogi, then it'll probably be Vingegaard, and then Lipowitz. Although I'd even say, and this I'd find ultra cool, imagine, Pogi wins, Lipo second and Vingegaard only third. Could happen.

Björn [00:57:47] Naw, one crashes out. One has a bad day. Actually, one always crashes out.

Niclas [00:57:53] Someone always drops out of the top favorites.

Björn [00:57:55] One crashes out, though those two, Vingegaard and Pogi, they hardly ever crash out. Basically never. But let's say one crashes out. Those two are too consistent. One crashes out, one of the really good ones. One somehow gets... I don't know, ate the wrong pasta, and Lipowitz wins.

Niclas [00:58:12] No joke, I say, it will completely kick off in Germany if Lipowitz, I mean, it's already the case, KT Memes photoshopped Lipowitz onto the pope's photo and still has it as a profile picture. There's a dedicated song. I say, if Lipowitz wins the Tour, he's the new hero. Yeah. He gets a lifetime contract at Bora. The question is whether he wants it. Yeah, fine. The question is whether he wants it, sure. No, then he moves to Lidl-Trek. Possibly. Together with Christian Niermann. Together with Dan Lorang. Is he also moving to Lidl-Trek? Hello, did you not catch that? No. Yes. Really? Uh, then Lidl-Trek is really cooking. Yeah, they've still got mega buying power. Sorry, I only caught Christian Niermann.

Björn [00:58:57] No, no, that would be really, really, really. Look here, then Lorang, Lidl. Look, confirmed. Not only Niermann, also Lorang to Lidl-Trek.

Niclas [00:59:08] Second sixth. Yeah, and then Lipowitz wins the Tour. And then moves to Lidl-Dreck. Yeah.

Björn [00:59:14] So Dan Lorang becomes Head of Performance. Oh, then they're really buying big. Yeah, sure. That's... The question is always... Sure, you're buying people with brutal expertise and also brutal riders. The question is only, does it click?

Niclas [00:59:28] That's what you just reported, that as a team, since especially cycling is largely an individual sport. So I think, Pogačar you put into any team and it works. But I think you also can't forget what a mega team UAE is because of Pogačar. Because it's not being questioned who they're riding for here. It's absolutely clear, they're riding for Pogačar. And everyone also wants to ride for Pogačar, because he is who he is.

Björn [00:59:51] Yeah, well there's no other option either, because he never fails to show. And I think the paycheck you get, it's also so good that you say, screw it, I'll ride 180 kilometers in the wind, I still get my high seven-figure or seven-figure or high six-figure sum every year. So, all easy. Let's just do it. Let's ride. Yeah, gladly.

Niclas [01:00:11] Good. Good. We've got it. There we have a nice Tour de France episode. Yeah. I'm curious how well it ages. What we'll say about it at the end of July. I'll crawl under my mattress. Totally missed the mark. Last time you made such nice time trial predictions. Now you haven't even named a time for tomorrow.

Björn [01:00:28] Oh, that's almost impossible with a team time trial. That's... Wow, you'd really have to know every CdA value of every rider and how they rotate and blah blah blah. I don't know.

Niclas [01:00:39] So, we're giving a time for the... What was it? The 16th day? We're giving a time for day 16.

Björn [01:00:46] Okay, listen. Just take a guess. Okay, wait. Give me a minute. You get to be the solo entertainer.

Niclas [01:00:51] We can go back to the time trial and look at it again. So it's exactly 20 kilometers. 19.6 is what's listed. Basically we have the first split at 4 kilometers. The second split at 10.5 kilometers. The third split at 15.5, and after 15.5 the climb starts. That has 900 elevation meters at 5.5 percent. Then it goes down and then we have the last ramp, Côte d'Estade Olympique, with 700 meters and 7.9 percent. So I personally think, that Pogačar will also win, because the guys are just top form. Del Toro pulls him full gas. Pogačar wins it. Or actually Remco. That could also be the thing.

Björn [01:01:33] Remco could also really... Yeah, would make sense. If you want to grab something, then here.

Niclas [01:01:39] If he wants to ride in yellow once, then he has to grab yellow there. Yeah. Yeah. Although, I don't know, at Red Bull, the other guys aren't really the time trial monsters everyone knows. Apart from Remco, honestly, I see UAE better set up, and I even see Ineos almost better set up. You also have to say, Decathlon has done a lot on time trialing. They really, in terms of bike, helm, a lot has been optimized. But actually, it will be a time trial, I'd say, between UAE and Visma. And then third or maybe a surprise, it'll be Ineos. That'll be exciting. But I have to, in any case, because I'm playing Tour de France Fantasy again in my friends' circle, where you can build your own team. You have to give me the time now, because if you tip the right time trial time tomorrow, you get 200 extra points. I'm getting pressure from you here. Yeah, sure. I need a good time. The time window you can enter is 15 to 25 minutes. Yeah, but I'll see if I can pull this off quickly. It's an unfair advantage I have. But the others, I think, I'll finish the episode today. That means we upload it today at best. Or at the latest tomorrow morning. That means people could hear the episode, from my friend group too. And then they'd have the time too. So it's not completely unfair.

Björn [01:02:48] Yeah. Alright. Look, this dumb file doesn't work. Why not? I don't have a good file of the race, unfortunately. That's tough now. But wait, I'll do it really old-school. So, Excel.

Niclas [01:03:00] You break out your Excel tool? The famous Excel tool. Is it in this awesome Excel list you showed me once? Yeah. It's so great. So, listen here, aero. I don't know, look, the guys ride at like a 50 km/h average the whole time trial. Yeah.

Björn [01:03:14] They have to. So it's... Right, now we have someone who weighs... Yeah, I think we'll just set the weight.

Niclas [01:03:20] Are you giving the weight for the rider with the time trial bike? Yeah, yeah. The Colnago isn't that light. Yeah, on a course like this it's not that difficult. Well, the last ramp is 11 percent short. So it'll definitely be, I think basically the Tour this year. I've never been so excited or curious about these three weeks from my side. Because I find it so awesome this year that France has a top rider. Because I find, you always see it, you also saw it with Thibaut Pinot. The French get hyped. When a rider like that is at the start, they're pumped. Then they stand along the whole course. They'll go crazy for Seixas. Yeah, I think...

Björn [01:03:55] 19:30? 19:30? 58 km/h average, 59 km/h average.

Niclas [01:04:02] 59 km/h average?

Björn [01:04:05] Yeah, if they ride with a CdA of, if you're tucked in behind, 58? Yeah, though that's already fourth-position territory. Yeah, it's really hard to say. Maybe only 57. So 20 minutes. Let's say 20, something like 20 minutes. 19 to 19:30. That would be right in the middle. Yeah, that's why. Are there people already, I haven't scoured YouTube, no idea. Or the freaks who say something? I'll take a quick look.

Niclas [01:04:32] I haven't looked. I've been busy today with the course. I've already roughly built my team. I even brought in a rider from Uno-X. Who? Abrahamsen? No, unfortunately not. But Abrahamsen for the first five days, he probably won't be able to go on any stage. And he's too expensive for that. I've got Anders, Anders Halland Johannessen in. Okay. Because he's cheap. Sorry, Anders.

Björn [01:04:53] We're not Torstein. Too expensive. Or Anton Charmig is also too expensive, right?

Niclas [01:04:59] Yeah, yeah. Here, Torstein is, oh no, that's Tobias, sorry, sorry. Tobias costs 17. Wait, I have to filter by teams. So you have a certain budget for your team, right? Yeah, explain. Oh yeah, so you have to pick eight riders. I'll send you an invite link. From all the riders that exist, you can pick eight. You can have a maximum of three leaders, they're divided into different categories. Pogi for example is a leader, Van der Poel is an all-rounder, Healy is an all-rounder, then there are climbers, sprinters. And from that budget you build your team. And then each day you tip who wins. Then you get bonuses on the riders. And it goes by KOM points bring points, sprint points bring points, GC brings the most points of course. You have to build a team and you can also swap eight times over the Tour. That's also interesting. So you build a different team for the start of the Tour than in the middle. So I don't have the top-tier climbers or anything yet. I've got five pretty expensive riders and then three very cheap riders, because I think those five riders will grab lots of points in the first three, four days.

Björn [01:06:00] Yeah, so I just checked again. It's 19.7 kilometers. Then we have the climbs and everything. So if we... It's not a classic team time trial, we burn people up.

Niclas [01:06:11] That makes it really fast then, right?

Björn [01:06:13] Yeah, exactly. So... 56 km/h average. 21. Just 21? Yeah.

Niclas [01:06:21] They're getting slower and slower.

Björn [01:06:23] Yeah, yeah, at first it was, I've looked at the course more closely now. They also have to brake, right? They can't just ride straight. Oh no, why do they brake? They know, he who brakes, loses. Yeah, so I take it all back. I think we're at 56, 57 km/h average, maybe. With the corners at the end, 56. Maybe only 55, if we're unlucky. With the ramp.

Niclas [01:06:48] So more like 21, 21:30. Yeah, 21, 21:30. Then I'll say, so this is transparent here, 21:15. Boom. That's good. Now I already have an advantage over Paula, because she already set off. She won't hear this anymore. She won't catch this. She has to guess herself now.

Björn [01:07:04] So, now let's see. Look, if the guy in the draft would ride at 5.5 watts per kilo at a 55 km/h average and at a 56 km/h average. Uh, I mis-typed. So. 5.8 was already a wall. 56 km/h average, 55, 56 km/h average and the ones at the front, they, whoa, only pulling like 30 seconds up front, right? At 8 watts per kilo or something.

Niclas [01:07:32] I would not want to be in that team meeting. I don't know, you're a Politt and they say, yeah, you're pulling at 8 watts per kilo up front. Great, thanks.

Björn [01:07:39] I still have to make it to the finish. Yeah, well, that's 470 watts. I mean, if you're 76 kilos, that's 470. Politt said in the interview, 80, 81 kilos.

Niclas [01:07:52] Yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay, 81.

Björn [01:07:54] Yeah then he's pulling at 500 watts. That's not so bad. Wait, we also still have to hit a 21 CdA. They still have the climbs too. Yeah, maybe we're faster after all.

Niclas [01:08:05] Ah, Björn, don't make this so complicated. Come on, we'll stay at 21:30. It's already 90 minutes. I think we're going under 21. Under 21?

Björn [01:08:15] Yeah. I'm curious.

Niclas [01:08:17] Then I'll go with 20:50. So. We'll commit to 20:50. Good. Even the corner in between. Yeah. We could keep going back and forth. But we'll commit to something like 20:50, 20:50.

Björn [01:08:28] If I had the GPX file, I could crunch it better. I did it by hand now. It's not that easy.

Niclas [01:08:35] Okay. Then we're, we're curious about the next three weeks. It will definitely be exciting. I hope we can say afterwards that it was an awesome Tour. And with that, I wish all listeners three beautiful weeks. Have fun watching the Tour de France. Enjoy it. I always find, it's the best three weeks in a year. It's just... A bit stressful, right? For you it's stressful right now?

Björn [01:08:56] Yeah, when you're down there, hit me up, we can grab a Flammkuchen in Belfort or Melun. Which days are you down there? Yeah, I'm in Belfort, that's stage 13. 13 and 14 I'm there. 13 and 14 you're there? Yeah, so anyone who's there is welcome to reach out and we can chat together and maybe grab a Flammkuchen at the market square in Colmar.

Niclas [01:09:16] Alright, we've got a plan.

Björn [01:09:18] Awesome.

Niclas [01:09:19] Björn, I wish you a nice day and thanks for listening. Bye, bye.